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Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.

That is the message from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Establishments Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."

New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion

The pair have examined the political, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to stir debate on the topic with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.

"What concerns everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."

Governmental Mandate

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.

Lack of Serious Debate

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the book, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. Each writes two articles that aim for objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.

Discussions cover flags and symbols, duties, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and provoke dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.

"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.

Likelihood of Referendum

McBride believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has got important lessons to acquire from the opposing arguments."

Request for Wider Debate

Westminster needed to join the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."