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Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension sparked by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare

The chain of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: optimistic declarations are issued from various governments. Considerable effort is expended on managing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "settlement".

Nighttime Reality

As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from across the border, a capacity provided through up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to intercept incoming guided weapons roared overhead – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.

Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: multiple launches fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably provided by Western nations. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and further power outages.

Continuous Dangers

Following this, a heavy machine gun engaged a aerial vehicle close by, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely Western-made equipment. Sadly, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.

Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: multiple fatalities, damage and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a reliance that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to substitute in the near term.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The comprehensive proposal from US administration generated strong feelings, controversy and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.

Every new initiative from Washington adheres to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, certainly, persist.

Tactical Assessments

It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington works based on a assumption well known to international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration presumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to surrender the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does minimal to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from assuming that the status quo will not shift further in its advantage in the coming year.

Divergent Views

Therefore, Moscow is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing civilians and areas but averting a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its favour.

Existing Situation

Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not move to homefront challenges. And although their task will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.

These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.

Assessment and Future

It took a just a single week to eliminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.

While new proposals based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.